The outcomes of the 14 October Bavarian and 28 October Hessian elections were no surprise after the surveys but their importance does not come from the surprise factor, but the inevitability. Starting from the 2013 General Elections for the Bundestag, the Union and the SPD were losing votes throughout Germany. Although the Union under the leadership of Angela Merkel was able to form a coalition with the SPD again, it was after both parties had suffered substantial losses which lead to formation of an opposition in the SPD against another coalition with the CDU and it took an intervention from the President Steinmeier to convince them.
The Union and the SPD had been dominating the German political stage since the end of Second World War. The general trend in Germany is that the Union gets majority to form government alone, or comes as the leading party to form either small coalition with the FDP or grand coalition with the SPD. The occasional gaps between the CDU governments are filled by the SPD led coalition in the same manner of the CDU coalitions, either grand coalitions with the CDU or in a few cases small coalition with the Greens. This has been accepted as the normal flow course of the German politics in the last six decades. However, in 2013 a new political party, the AfD, entered the German political stage and just five months after its foundation barely missed the threshold to enter the Bundestag. Between 2013 and 2017 general elections, the AfD made significant gains in every landtag election, passing the %5 threshold in every state elections it entered and even came second in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Merkel’s own electoral region. Although the CDU had been refusing to acknowledge this fact, most of the AfD’s gains came from the Union, and even when acknowledged it was seen as a “temporary” trend. Similar to the Union, the SPD was also signaling that it will suffer major loses in the next elections from the local elections and the surveys. While the votes that shifted from the Union mainly went to the AfD and the FDP, the SPD’s loses mainly went to the Greens and the Linke.
In the regional level, the CSU has been dominating the Bavaria politics since its foundation. As the CSU is the sister party of the CDU they have a unwritten agreement regarding where they compete in elections; the CDU does not compete in Bavaria and in turn the CSU does only compete in Bavaria. Although always coming on the top, the CSU votes reached its peak as recent as 2003. However, after the %60.7 peak the CSU faced a very sharp fall and had to form a coalition with the FDP in 2008. Despite regaining its majority in 2013 CSU, with its sister party, has been experiencing very poor popularity on the poll since then. In the Hesse other hand, the Union had a stable voter base while votes shifted between the SPD and the Greens and the FDP.
Table 1. Bavarian State Elections 2018
| Party | CSU | SPD | Grünen | FW | FDP | AfD |
| Votes 2018 | 37.2 | 9.7 | 17.5 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 10.2 |
| Votes 2013 | 47.6 | 20.6 | 8.6 | 9 | 3.3 | - |
| VOTE Change | -10.4 | -10.9 | +8.9 | +2.6 | +1.8 | +10.2 |
| Seats 2018 | 85 | 11 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 22 |
| Seats 2013 | 101 | 31 | 18 | 19 | - | - |
| SEATS Change | -16 | -20 | +20 | +8 | +11 | +22 |
Table 2. Hessian State Elections 2018
| Party | CdU | SPD | Grünen | Linke | FDP | AfD |
| Votes 2018 | 27 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 13.1 |
| Votes 2013 | 38.3 | 30.7 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Votes Change | -11.3 | -10.9 | +8.9 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +9 |
| Seats 2018 | 40 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 11 | 19 |
| Seats 2013 | 47 | 37 | 13 | 6 | 6 | - |
| seats Change | -7 | -8 | +16 | +3 | +5 | +19 |
Rise of the AfD in Bavaria
Since its foundation in 2013 the AfD made somewhat phenomenal effect in German politics. German politics had been a stage for many nationalist parties, even in the limited democracy during the German Empire. In Weimar Republic the economic crisis and the disgrace of the Versailles Treaty made it a more fertile ground for nationalist parties. However, the events leading the rise of the Nazi Party and the Second World War made a horrific memory and an unforgettable shame on German mind. Due to this, since the Second World War nationalist parties are frowned upon in German politics. Although, the nationalist parties like German Party, German Right Party and National Democratic Party, and even a direct Nazi inheritor party named as Socialist Reich Party, was founded after the Second World War none of those parties gained any significant representation in German politics. German Party was a small partner in Adenauer’s coalitions but it lost its votes later on. Before the foundation of the AfD, the NDP was the last significant nationalist party which was still garnering attention, yet it never passed the %5 threshold to enter the Bundestag. On the other hand just 8 months after its foundation the AfD nearly entered to parliament, falling just below the threshold with %4.7 percent. However, in 2017 the AfD not only entered the Bundestag and managed no other right wing party had achieved, but also became third party with .7 percent. So in this sense the AfD was an anathema for the mainstream German politics.
Since its foundation there have been two tendencies in the AfD; populists and nationalists. Populist tendencies of the AfD manifests itself in its proposals towards tax reduction, increasing support for those who nurse their relatives or raise children, support to the small and medium size companies and etc. Through these proposals the AfD garners the votes of low and middle income segment of the German society who had been suffering under the continuous burden of big projects, such as reconstructing the East Germany and enable it to catch the West Germany, burdens of the EU and the loans given to the EU countries and lastly the refugee wave. Under those circumstances, an offer off relaxation of the taxes and increase in social state payments do catch attention from voters. The nationalist or far-right ideology of the AfD on the other hand comes more from the speeches and actions taken by the AfD politicians then its party program. Currently the AfD is the party with the tougher stance against immigrants and refugees in German political stage. The AfD refuses taking huge number of refugees, advocates return of those from the countries where the wars ceased and to implement border controls again. Several of the AfD politicians, like Alexander Gauland and Björn Höcke, have made comments which were considered as anti-Semitic and racist. There were also comments on the need to eradicate German apologetic behavior over the Second World War and the Holocaust. Furthermore, the AfD works closely with Islamophobic groups like the PEGIDA and there have been statements from top officials like Alice Weidel regarding bans on minarets, circumcision and headscarf. However, where the Islamophobic attitude is a unifying attitude in the AfD, anti-Semitism and attitude towards the Second World War is creating cracks in the party. While those comments draw the ire of the other parties and general public, it also draws criticism from conservative and populist elements of the party who does not share those ideas. Frauke Petry, the former party leader, quit the party because of those vies and formed a new party, the Blue Party, which is more center conservative.
Under those circumstances it was no surprise that the AfD garnered votes from the CDU where many middle and low income voters were dissatisfied with Merkel’s refugee policy or the continuing burden of the taxation. However, the Bavarian conservatives were always a bit different from their sister party the CDU. Bavarian voters are more conservative, more traditionalist but most importantly regionalists, their main concern always lays in Bavaria. Also, the CSU has always been stronger than the Union in terms of percentage, the CSU nearly always gains more votes than the Union votes in general Germany. Furthermore, the CSU has always been more secure from the fluctuations in the votes, even in times where the CDU had experiences major loses, the CSU had wavered with minimal losses and kept its dominion over Bavaria. Seehofer and other the CSU politicians’ recent hard stance against refugees was also seen as a way keeping their voters away from the AfD. Therefore while the CDU lost votes to the AfD, it was thought that the CSU’s loses would be minimal, or reasonable. However, as the election day neared, the AfD continued the momentum it gained in other states and posed to be the third party in the polls. Thus the AfD gaining votes in Bavaria proved to be the final point in the formation of the AfD as a permanent political party in Germany. Just two weeks after entering the Bavarian Landtag, the AfD entered the Hessian Landtag and became the third all-German party, something only achieved by the Union and the SPD so far. Furthermore, the fact that the AfD gained votes in Bavaria despite the CSU’s recent shift to the right-wing politics proved that the voters shift towards the AfD cannot be stopped by mere political tricks and requires deeper understanding of the problems and the phenomena by the Union and the SPD.
Can the Greens replace the SPD
While the Bavarian and Hessian Elections showed that the AfD had completed its formation as a party active throughout the country, they also showed that the Greens were a candidate to take the place of the SPD, both as the main party of democratic left and as the second biggest party in Germany. The biggest topic of the 2017 General Elections were the Union’s loss of voters against the AfD, and the Greens themselves were unable to make any meaningful breakthrough with an only %0.5 increase. In the same election the SPD lost %5.2 votes, which neither the Greens nor the Linke were able to collect. However, recently the Greens were able to garner votes from the SPD in the polls, but it was unknown whether this trend in polls were going to make any impact on the actual votes on the further regional or general elections is yet to be seen.
As the Greens are a party which have more support in the industrial heartland of the Germany, while they were coalition partners in Hesse, they were never able to pass in Bavaria. Since its foundation apart from being junior partners in two SPD-Green coalitions, the Greens have always been in opposition in Bundestag. In the regional level they are more successful, as they are in governing coalition in several landtag. In Bavaria, the Greens had a stable tradition of passing the threshold, but even as the opposition they were the junior party due to being second after the SPD. This sudden surge of the increase in the Green votes was however surprising, in Bavaria if not in Hesse. In the past the SPD loses both in Bavaria and in general elections usually went to the Union. However the AfD and its impact on the German politics gave the Greens a chance to replace the SPD. The AfD’s rise made the CSU and the CDU more conservative, and the SPD had been a reluctant or moderate in its opposition to this shift to right-wing tendencies. The CSU’s policies like putting crosses in front of the public buildings or insisting on a refugee quota was meant to convince voters to stay away from the AfD, however those were not enough for the voters who turned to the AfD but achieved the opposite. Policies like this made the SPD unappealing to the voters who wanted a stauncher opposition to the AfD and the new right-wing tendency in the Union. The SPD was seen as a pleaser, as they caved in to a new grand coalition after the 2017 Elections by the urgings of the President Steinmeier.
The Greens on the other hand, have a radical approach to the refugee crisis like the AfD. However, while the AfD is against taking more refugees, the Greens wants to cancel the new quotas and take more refugees into Germany. This makes them the direct choice for the people who wants a stronger opposition against the AfD as taking even minimal amounts of refugees with the new quota system still plays into the AfD rhetoric as the AfD is not focusing on the numbers but on taking refugees itself. However, the Greens also prioritize topics that makes it appealing to young voters and lower income class. The Greens focus on issues like the climate change and energy renewability makes it appealing to ecologically friendly young voters, while its focus on social welfare, housing, gender equality and other issues also makes it appealing for greater Germany and turns it into a volkspartie rather than a party which cares about some limited issues.
Two weeks after the Bavarian Elections, the Green Party also passed the SPD in Hessen Elections. If the Greens can keep this trend for 8 more months and carry its success in to the state elections in 2019, it can signal the end of current coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. In 2019 there will be elections in 5 of the states, and if the Greens can manage to come second, they will be in front of the SPD in 7 of the 16 Landtag. Also this shift from the traditional mainstream parties to the parties on the opposite ends of the system marks a new era for German politics. Since the Second World War, German politics have been dominated by center parties and there have never been big shifts from this trend. Counting the rise of the AfD and the drift from the mainstream parties, this may signal a shift like recent 2016 Austrian Presidential Elections, where the right-wing FPÖ’s and the left-wing Green’s candidates came first and second ahead of more central and traditional parties, like the SPÖ and the ÖVP.
Results and Predictions
Even before the results were announced Bavarian Elections signaled that the current political situation can create new realities for German politics. After the polls showed that the Greens were going to be the second party in the elections, and the AfD was going to get around ten percent votes, the CSU immediately declared that it would not form any coalition with neither the Greens nor the AfD. This could have create a deadlock if the CSU could not convince either the Freie Wählers or the SPD, as convincing only the FDP is not enough to form a government. This shows that the Union is persistent on its decision to not to include the AfD in to any coalition, neither in regional nor in federal level. In Hesse on the other hand, it is predicted that the Black-Green coalition between the Greens and the CDU will continue, just with more role in the government for the Greens.
A coalition, even the talks of a coalition, would give the AfD a new kind of legitimacy through the acceptance or the possibility of the acceptance into the government. So far all major German parties had cast out the AfD as political outcast who garnered votes through populism and nationalist sentiments. However, if the AfD can get in to coalition talks, even in regional level, it can boost its popularity to its voters and to those who are sceptic about whether voting to the AfD does mean anything or not. Furthermore, any coalition with the AfD will only make the CSU lose further votes as both parties are addressing nearly the same voter group. A coalition with the AfD will result in the CSU losing more votes, independent of the coalitions success. If the coalition will be successful to address people’s needs, the AfD can garner prestige from the successful coalition. If it will be unsuccessful, the AfD can blame it on the CSU and use this to further its own campaign.
While the coalition talks in Hesse still continues in Bavaria the CSU formed a coalition with the Freie Wählers. This is a historic victory for the Freie Wählers, as since none of the Freie Wähler groups in Germany have never managed to be a part of any coalition in Landtag level. This may raise the support for such movements in the Landtag level as the citizens will realize that they can promote their concerns without getting in to party hierarchies. If the Freie Wählers will be successful, we may see more movements like that in the near future. However, its worth note that while the Freie Wählers can get votes in the Landtag elections, it is less likely to garner votes in the Bundestag elections.
Most importantly, Bavarian and Hessian elections marked an end to the CDU’s hopes of regaining its votes back. Seehofer and CSU’s effect on the new cabinet and new policies like limiting the annual number of refugees were seen as factors that could bring back the voters lost the AfD in the recent years. However, as can be seen in Bavaria and Hesse those policies did not work at and also was used by the AfD as a signature of AfD’s discourse righteousness and success. New debates and possible big changes can be expected in both the CSU and the CDU, in both central and regional level.
Osman Erdoğdu
Research Assistant at
Diaspora Research Center
